World on Track to Exceed 1.5°C Warming Limit In 3 years, Scientists Warn

The Earth is on the brink of breaching the critical 1.5°C global warming limit in as little as three years if current levels of carbon dioxide emissions continue, according to a stark new warning from over 60 of the world’s leading climate scientists.

This is the most up-to-date assessment of global warming, and it paints a worrying picture. Nearly 200 countries pledged under the 2015 Paris Agreement to keep temperature rises well below 2°C and ideally limit warming to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels, in order to avoid the most dangerous impacts of climate change. But ongoing record use of coal, oil, and gas, coupled with widespread deforestation, is pushing that goal out of reach.

“We’re seeing unprecedented changes,” said Professor Piers Forster, lead author of the study and director of the Priestley Centre for Climate Futures at the University of Leeds. “Earth’s heating and sea level rise are accelerating, and all indicators are moving in the wrong direction. These impacts can be directly linked to our very high emissions levels.”

Already, climate change is fueling more extreme weather, like the UK’s record-breaking 40°C heat in July 2022, and is causing sea levels to rise faster, threatening coastal communities worldwide.

Back in 2020, scientists estimated that humanity could emit 500 billion more tonnes of carbon dioxide for a 50% chance of keeping warming within 1.5°C. But by the start of 2025, that remaining “carbon budget” will have shrunk dramatically to just 130 billion tonnes.

This steep reduction is largely due to ongoing record-high emissions of CO2 and methane, as well as refinements in scientific understanding of the carbon budget. With global CO2 emissions still at about 40 billion tonnes a year, the current carbon budget gives the world roughly three years before it is fully spent.

Breaching that budget would set the world on course to surpass the Paris Agreement’s temperature target, with the 1.5°C threshold likely to be crossed a few years later. The findings highlight the urgent need for rapid and deep cuts to greenhouse gas emissions to avoid the most severe consequences of climate change.