Venezuela’s Oil: How Much the US Really Wants and the Challenges Ahead

 

Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro claims that escalating US pressure is motivated by Washington’s interest in the South American nation’s vast oil reserves. Recent US actions, including the seizure of an oil tanker allegedly carrying Venezuelan oil in violation of sanctions, and prior military strikes on vessels accused of drug trafficking, have intensified tensions.

While some US officials, including former President Donald Trump, have suggested Maduro should leave office, citing drug trafficking and other crimes, speculation remains over whether the true motivation is Venezuela’s oil.

Venezuela’s Vast But Underperforming Reserves

Venezuela holds the world’s largest proven oil reserves, estimated at 303 billion barrels. However, its current production is a fraction of its potential. Output has fallen sharply since the early 2000s, as successive administrations tightened control over the state-owned PDVSA and key personnel left the industry.

As of November 2025, Venezuela produced roughly 860,000 barrels per day—about one-third of its output ten years ago and less than 1% of global consumption, according to the International Energy Agency.

“Venezuela’s real challenge is its infrastructure,” said Callum McPherson, head of commodities at Investec. Sanctions imposed since 2015 have further restricted access to investment, technology, and equipment critical to reviving the oil sector.

US Interest: Drugs, Democracy or Oil?

Some US lawmakers have highlighted the potential for American companies to profit from Venezuela’s oil industry. Florida Republican Congresswoman María Elvira Salazar said reviving the oil sector could create opportunities for US firms to repair pipelines and rigs.

Trump’s broader energy policies, which emphasize expanding domestic oil production to lower prices, align with such arguments. However, the White House has consistently framed its actions in Venezuela as targeting drug trafficking and supporting democracy, rather than securing oil resources.

White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt told reporters that stopping the flow of illegal drugs remains the administration’s “number one” priority. Analysts like Clayton Siegle of the Center for Strategic and International Studies note that evidence linking US strategy to oil is limited.

US Companies and Market Interests

Chevron is currently the only US oil company operating in Venezuela, holding a fifth of national output. Other firms, including Spain’s Repsol, have had licenses revoked under sanctions designed to curb funds reaching the Maduro government.

US Gulf Coast refiners also have a strong appetite for Venezuela’s heavier, cheaper crude, which has become less available due to sanctions and declining production. “Even if companies aren’t involved in production, they would be keen buyers,” said Matt Smith, oil analyst at Kpler.

Challenges to Reviving Production

Analysts warn that restoring Venezuela’s oil industry would require significant investment and time. Wood Mackenzie estimates that modest improvements could raise output to two million barrels per day within two years, but a full recovery could take a decade and tens of billions of dollars.

Other obstacles include Venezuela’s OPEC membership and ongoing geopolitical risks, which could complicate long-term investment and export strategies.

While Venezuela’s oil remains a tempting prospect for US firms and refiners, analysts agree that production constraints and infrastructure issues mean it is unlikely to provide immediate relief to global or domestic markets.