Climate Change Is Redrawing Africa’s Malaria Map, New Study Warns

 

Climate change is no longer simply changing Africa’s weather. It is changing where malaria is most likely to spread.

A new international study published in the journal Nature has found that rising temperatures are reshaping malaria transmission across the continent, reducing the disease in some of Africa’s traditional hotspots while creating new risks in regions that have historically experienced relatively low infection rates.

The research, conducted by an international team of scientists including the University of Cape Town (UCT), suggests governments will need to rethink public health strategies as the disease migrates into new territories.

The study found that although climate change is expected to produce a modest overall increase in malaria cases across Africa, the impact differs sharply by region.

In parts of West Africa, where malaria remains endemic, temperatures are projected to become so high that they will gradually become less favourable for the mosquitoes that transmit the disease. Countries such as Nigeria, Burkina Faso and Mali could see malaria cases decline by around five percent, while some of the hottest Sahel countries may eventually eliminate malaria altogether.

The picture is markedly different elsewhere.

Cooler regions across southern Africa and the East African highlands are becoming increasingly suitable for mosquito survival as temperatures rise, exposing millions more people to the disease.

The researchers project malaria cases could increase by approximately five percent in parts of the Ethiopian highlands, Kenya and Burundi, with similar increases expected in Angola, Zambia and northeastern South Africa. By the end of the century, malaria risk could rise by as much as 20 percent in areas including the Rift Valley and coastal southern Africa.

For businesses and policymakers, the findings have significant economic implications.

Malaria remains one of Africa’s biggest public health challenges, reducing labour productivity, increasing healthcare expenditure and disrupting economic activity. Expanding transmission into previously low-risk areas could place additional pressure on health systems while increasing costs for governments, employers and households.

Christopher Trisos, co-author of the study, Director of the Climate Risk Lab and Principal Research Officer at UCT’s African Climate and Development Initiative, said the findings highlight the growing health consequences of human-induced climate change.

“We are seeing a notable increase in the number of children contracting malaria in Limpopo, Mpumalanga and KwaZulu-Natal due to human-caused climate change. Governments, health systems and communities must adapt to the evolving malaria threat.”

The researchers argue that the challenge extends beyond healthcare.

As malaria shifts geographically, countries will need to adjust disease surveillance, healthcare infrastructure and mosquito control programmes to reflect changing risk patterns rather than historical disease distribution.

Senior Vice President and Chief Economist of the World Bank Group, Indermit Gill, recently described climate adaptation and investment in resilient public systems as essential to protecting economic development in vulnerable countries, a view increasingly echoed by health experts confronting climate-driven disease patterns.

Tamma Carleton, Assistant Professor at the University of California, Berkeley and co-author of the study, said the research illustrates that climate change is altering, rather than simply worsening, Africa’s malaria burden.

“Climate change isn’t just making malaria worse or better, it’s moving it.”

The researchers conclude that Africa will need a combination of climate mitigation policies and stronger malaria elimination programmes to respond effectively to the shifting disease landscape.

Rather than treating malaria as a static public health challenge, governments may increasingly need to view it as one of the many economic risks emerging from a warming climate, one capable of influencing labour markets, healthcare spending and long-term development.